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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.