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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a much more significant change with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.