How Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.